On March 26, 1998, Jean Charest made his official announcement that he would seek the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party. In the weeks prior to this announcement there were a number of polls that indicated that Charest would defeat Lucien Bouchard’s Parti Québécois government in a provincial election. Shortly after Charest’s announcement, the polls revealed that support for Lucien Bouchard remained quite strong, but Charest and the Liberals would still win an election but by a narrower margin of victory. An examination of these polls reveals a great deal about the issues that are important in Quebec and the influence that polling has on the political process.

Compare the following accounts of two polls taken approximately one month apart. As you read each account, consider the role polls might have played in Jean Charest’s decision to seek the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party. To what extent do polls not just report the opinions of voters, but actually shape and influence how politics plays itself out?

1. “STRONG SUPPORT FOR CHAREST AS LEADER OF THE QUEBEC LIBERAL PARTY, March 20, 1998.” — This Globe and Mail/Angus Reid Group Canada-wide poll was conducted by telephone between March 4 and March 10, 1998. The poll found the following:

• All things considered, six in 10 (62 per cent) Canadians believed it would be a “good idea” for Jean Charest to leave the leadership of the federal Progressive Conservative Party to run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Quebec. This sentiment was prevalent both inside Quebec (63 per cent) and in the rest of Canada (62 per cent). In the minority, one-third (33 per cent) of Quebeckers and 24 per cent throughout the rest of the country believed that Charest’s move to provincial politics would be a “bad idea.”
• On the basis of an open-ended question, Quebeckers were asked who they believed would be the best person to replace Daniel Johnson as the leader of the Quebec Liberal Party (because respondents were also invited to provide an alternate candidate, totals exceed 100 per cent). Jean Charest received the resounding support of 58 per cent of Quebeckers. In second place, Lisa Frulla received 15 per cent of total mentions, and Pierre Paradis, who has recently stepped out of the race, received 10 per cent of total mentions. One-quarter (26 per cent) of Quebeckers were undecided on this issue.
• While Charest’s support was strong among all socio-demographic groups in Quebec, it was strongest among those over 55 (72 per cent), those who have not completed high school (66 per cent) and the most affluent (67 per cent among those with household incomes over $60 000). While he was still their favourite, younger Quebeckers were the least likely to name Charest as the best candidate (51 per cent among those between 18 and 34 years).
• Given a scenario where Jean Charest led the Liberal Party of Quebec, Lucien Bouchard led the Parti Québécois, and Mario Dumont led the Parti Action Démocratique, half (50 per cent) of Quebeckers indicated they would support the Liberal Party if an election were held “tomorrow.” The Parti Québécois led by Lucien Bouchard garnered the support of 37 per cent of Quebeckers and the Parti Action Démocratique led by Mario Dumont captured 7 per cent of the vote.
• Fortunes for a Charest-led Liberal Party varied across different socio-demographic groups. In particular, it was weakest among younger Quebeckers. In fact, the Liberals fell behind the Parti Québécois among those between 35 and 54 (39 per cent versus 45 per cent) and were only slightly ahead of the PQ among those between 18 and 34 (43 per cent versus 40 per cent). Charest and the Liberal Party pulled ahead of the pack among those over 55 years by capturing three-quarters (73 per cent) of their support (the PQ captured 20 per cent of the vote among those over 55 years).
• Although both men and women were inclined to support Charest and the Liberal Party over the other alternatives, women were stronger supporters of Charest and the Liberal Party than men were (53 per cent versus 46 per cent respectively).
• Since the Angus Reid Group last asked Quebeckers this question (February 1998), support for a Charest-led Liberal Party increased from 46 per cent to 50 per cent. Alternately, support for the Parti Québécois (39 per cent to 37 per cent) and the Parti Action Démocratique (9 per cent to 7 per cent) softened.

2. “POLL FINDS QUEBEC WANTS VOTE ON UNITY, April 24, 1998.” — The polling firm Léger & Léger conducted the following poll for The Globe and Mail and the Journal de Montréal between April 17 and April 21, 1998. The poll found the following:

• A majority of Quebeckers wanted changes to the Constitution and wanted to vote on those changes in a referendum. The poll asked: “If Jean Charest becomes premier, do you think he should enter negotiations to renew the Canadian Constitution?” Sixty-four per cent said yes and 26 per cent said no.
• Even if Jean Charest were their premier, Quebeckers still wanted to vote in a referendum on their political future in Canada. The poll asked: “If such negotiations were to happen, should Jean Charest put the result to a referendum?” Fifty-two per cent said yes and 38 per cent said no.
• The poll found support dwindling for Charest, but still strong. Fifty per cent of those polled said they would vote Liberal, 43 per cent would vote for the PQ, and 5 per cent for the Parti Action Démocratique. Two per cent would have backed other parties.
• When respondents were asked which party they would vote for if the PQ promised to not hold a referendum on sovereignty, the results were virtually identical. This means that the referendum issue had little influence over voters’ decisions in choosing the next government. Léger & Léger said the survey clearly indicated that voters disagreed with Charest’s view that Quebeckers are fed up with casting ballots about their political future.
• When asked “Do you think Quebeckers should be consulted by referendum on the changes to the Constitution proposed in the Calgary declaration recognizing the distinct character of Quebec?” 43 per cent said yes and 57 per cent said no.
• Despite Charest’s personal popularity and the PQ government cutbacks in health and education, public satisfaction with Bouchard’s government remained strong. Fifty-one per cent said they were either very satisfied or satisfied with the PQ’s performance. While 47 per cent said they were either dissatisfied or very dissatisfied.
  

Questions
1. What did the results of the polls indicate about Charest’s popular support in each of the following areas:
(a) gender
(b) income
(c) age

2. How could Charest now use the information from the polls to increase his popular support?

3. Examine the poll results that focus on the referendum issue. What do they indicate about referendums and their potential to become an important political issue? How might both Bouchard and Charest use this information when formulating their election strategies?

4. In your opinion, what might be the role that these polls played in shaping Quebec provincial politics?